Beyond the Ballot: Inter-personal Trust, Social-Media Networks, and Emerging Class–Ethnic Cleavages Shape Vote Choice in Islamabad Capital Territory

Abstract

This study investigates how interpersonal political trust, social-media exposure, and class- ethnic cleavages shape vote choice in the Islamabad Capital Territory. The analysis is delimited to urban voters and applies a novel Credibility–Connectivity–Cleavage (3C) framework.Political behavior in Pakistan is increasingly shaped by both traditional networks of trust and new digital environments. Social media algorithms amplify identity- based narratives, while class and ethnic cleavages remain salient in electoral mobilization. Examining the interaction of these factors is crucial for understanding democratic accountability in rapidly urbanizing contexts.The study adopts a mixed-methods design. A two-wave panel survey was conducted with 1,200 registered voters (T1: October 2023; T2: February 2024). Digital-trace data from 400 consenting respondents were linked to survey responses to capture algorithmic personalization effects. Additionally, 30 semi-structured elite interviews provided qualitative insights into campaign strategies. Analytical techniques included fixed-effects and instrumental-variable models, supplemented by spatial discontinuity tests to validate causal claims.Findings show that interpersonal trust increases the likelihood of voting for a trusted candidate by 12 percentage points (p < 0.01). However, this effect diminishes by half beyond a 2-km trust radius and is neutralized when pro-candidate social-media exposure is high. Algorithmic targeting magnifies cleavage- consistent appeals, reducing the trust effect to 4 percentage points (p < 0.05) among voters primed by class-ethnic identity. Spatial discontinuity analyses corroborate these patterns, highlighting the geographic and digital boundaries of trust-based voting.The results suggest that regulating micro-targeted political advertising could limit the amplification of cleavage- based divisions. Strengthening offline civic intermediaries and neighborhood-level engagement may help rebuild interpersonal trust networks and foster more accountable democratic practices in Pakistan’s urban centers.