Forecasting Municipal Solid Waste Management in DG Khan Using Time Series Analysis

Abstract

This study aims to forecast waste generation in Dera Ghazi Khan for 2025 by analyzing historical data from January 2021 to March 2024. The goal is to provide accurate waste predictions to assist local authorities in enhancing waste management and urban planning. As the region experiences population growth and urbanization, waste management becomes increasingly vital for public health and environmental sustainability. The ARIMA model was employed for this short-term forecast, leveraging time series data with seasonal patterns. The model was trained on historical data and analyzed using RStudio 6.1. Results indicate a consistent rise in waste generation, mirroring urbanization trends. The forecast underscores the need for improved waste management strategies, including adjusting collection frequencies, increasing resources during peak times, and implementing segregation programs. Additionally, expanding recycling facilities and adopting smart waste management systems are recommended to optimize operations and resource allocation. The study offers valuable insights for future waste management planning in Dera Ghazi Khan.